Two weeks before the federal elections , an unthinkable trend just a few months ago has been consolidated in all the polls in Germany: the SPD Social Democrats , with their candidate for Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the helm, comfortably lead the projections ahead of the conservative union of the CDU-CSU , by Armin Laschet, and the eco-liberals of Los Verdes, by Annalena Baerbock .
An average of the polls carried out since last weekend gives the following arithmetic: the SPD moves between 25 and 27% of the votes ; secondly, the conservatives of the CDU-CSU appear with a range of between 19 and 25%; in third place, and practically out of the race for electoral victory, the eco-liberals of Los Verdes with a voting intention that ranges between 15 and 17%. The liberal-conservatives of the FDP (9.5 – 13%), the extreme right of Alternative for Germany (11 – 12%) and the coalition of post-communists and ex-social democrats of the Left (6%) would close the federal Parliament.
On this occasion, it is also striking that the column that gathers the vote of other parties – those that do not exceed 3% or if they approach the 5% threshold necessary to enter the Bundestag – is especially relevant: some polls give up to 10 % intention to all those little matches together.
In any case, this electoral panorama will leave a parliamentary arch marked by fragmentation and by the dwarfing of the two great traditional forces of the Federal Republic (CDU-CSU and SPD), which are already unable to exceed 30% of the votes that they receive. allow to rely on only one party to form solid governments . The next German federal government will be, barring surprise, a tripartite for the first time in history.
The coalition game is thus enormous and tough negotiations are foreseen after the elections that can last for months. If the social democratic victory projected by the polls is consummated, and with the current projections, the SPD will be able to choose between: a coalition with the Greens and the FDP (called the “Traffic Light Coalition”, after the colors of the parties), a tripartite center -left with the Greens and the Left, or even a Grand Coalition with the CDU- CSU enlarged with the FDP.
For the Christian Democratic candidate, Armin Laschet, –with popularity ratings on the ground– would have the option of becoming chancellor with the support of the Greens and the liberals of the FDP (“Jamaica Coalition”, due to the similarity with the colors of the flag of that country), even if he is unable to win the election.